A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming

Rebecca M. Varney; Sarah E. Chadburn; Pierre Friedlingstein; Eleanor J. Burke; Charles D. Koven; Gustaf Hugelius; Peter M. Cox

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-19208-8

A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming

Rebecca M. Varney
, Sarah E. Chadburn
, Pierre Friedlingstein
, Eleanor J. Burke
, Charles D. Koven
, Gustaf Hugelius
, Peter M. Cox

University of Exeter
Now at Met Office Hadley Centre
Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Stockholm University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τ_s) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔC_s,τ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (−196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔC_s,τ, which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τ_s inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔC_s,τ at 2 °C to −232 ± 52 PgC.

Original language	English
Article number	5544
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	11
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19208-8
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2020

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Cite this

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title = "A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming",

abstract = "Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔCs,τ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (−196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔCs,τ, which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔCs,τ at 2 °C to −232 ± 52 PgC.",

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AU - Varney, Rebecca M.

AU - Chadburn, Sarah E.

AU - Friedlingstein, Pierre

AU - Burke, Eleanor J.

AU - Koven, Charles D.

AU - Hugelius, Gustaf

AU - Cox, Peter M.

PY - 2020/12/1

Y1 - 2020/12/1

N2 - Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔCs,τ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (−196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔCs,τ, which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔCs,τ at 2 °C to −232 ± 52 PgC.

AB - Carbon cycle feedbacks represent large uncertainties in climate change projections, and the response of soil carbon to climate change contributes the greatest uncertainty to this. Future changes in soil carbon depend on changes in litter and root inputs from plants and especially on reductions in the turnover time of soil carbon (τs) with warming. An approximation to the latter term for the top one metre of soil (ΔCs,τ) can be diagnosed from projections made with the CMIP6 and CMIP5 Earth System Models (ESMs), and is found to span a large range even at 2 °C of global warming (−196 ± 117 PgC). Here, we present a constraint on ΔCs,τ, which makes use of current heterotrophic respiration and the spatial variability of τs inferred from observations. This spatial emergent constraint allows us to halve the uncertainty in ΔCs,τ at 2 °C to −232 ± 52 PgC.

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A spatial emergent constraint on the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to global warming

Abstract

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