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A statistical test of market efficiency based on information theory

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20 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We determine the amount of information contained in a time series of price returns at a given time scale, by using a widespread tool of the information theory, namely the Shannon entropy, applied to a symbolic representation of this time series. By deriving the exact and the asymptotic distribution of this market information indicator in the case where the efficient market hypothesis holds, we develop a statistical test of market efficiency. We apply it to a real dataset of stock indices, single stocks, and cryptocurrencies, for which we are able to determine at each date whether the efficient market hypothesis is to be rejected, with respect to a given confidence level.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1003-1018
Number of pages16
JournalQuantitative Finance
Volume23
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2023
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Information theory
  • Market efficiency
  • Shannon entropy

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