A stochastic conflict detection model revisited

This paper addresses the theoretical issue of the uncertainty modelling to enhance conflict estimation for air traffic control. One of the important aspect is to identify and evaluate the impact on the positioning error of its different components: position, velocity, and acceleration error. To set up such a model, the major difficulty identified is to make explicit the dynamic of aircraft position that includes uncertainties. A possible enhancement of the classical probabilistic model of error by introducing a dynamic dimension to the position error model is proposed. This new position error model is generic and can thus be used for different probabilistic methods. Moreover, as shown in the paper, this new model can be tuned to reproduce the results used in reference and validated on real traffic.