Abstract
World agriculture needs to find the right balance to cope with the trilemma between feeding a growing population, reducing its impact on biodiversity and minimizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this paper, we evaluate a broad range of scenarios that achieve 4.3 GtCO2,eq/year GHG mitigation in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use (AFOLU) sector by 2100. Scenarios include varying mixes of three GHG mitigation policies: second-generation biofuel production, dietary change and reforestation of pasture. We find that focusing mitigation on a single policy can lead to positive results for a single indicator of food security or biodiversity conservation, but with significant negative side effects on others. A balanced portfolio of all three mitigation policies, while not optimal for any single criterion, minimizes trade-offs by avoiding large negative effects on food security and biodiversity conservation. At the regional scale, the trade-off seen globally between biodiversity and food security is nuanced by different regional contexts.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 114005 |
| Journal | Environmental Research Letters |
| Volume | 15 |
| Issue number | 11 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Nov 2020 |
| Externally published | Yes |
UN SDGs
This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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SDG 2 Zero Hunger
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SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
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SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy
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SDG 15 Life on Land
Keywords
- biodiversity
- bioenergy
- dietary change
- food security
- global scale
- land-use
- mitigation
- reforestation
- trade-off
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