Abstract
We consider the problem of detecting change points (structural changes) in long sequences of data, whether in a sequential fashion or not, and without assuming prior knowledge of the number of these change points. We reformulate this problem as the Bayesian filtering and smoothing of a non standard state space model. Towards this goal, we build a hybrid algorithm that relies on particle filtering and Markov chain Monte Carlo ideas. The approach is illustrated by a GARCH change point model.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 349-366 |
| Number of pages | 18 |
| Journal | Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics |
| Volume | 59 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Jun 2007 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Change point models
- GARCH models
- Markov chain Monte Carlo
- Particle filter
- Sequential Monte Carlo
- State state models