Dynamic detection of change points in long time series

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

We consider the problem of detecting change points (structural changes) in long sequences of data, whether in a sequential fashion or not, and without assuming prior knowledge of the number of these change points. We reformulate this problem as the Bayesian filtering and smoothing of a non standard state space model. Towards this goal, we build a hybrid algorithm that relies on particle filtering and Markov chain Monte Carlo ideas. The approach is illustrated by a GARCH change point model.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)349-366
Number of pages18
JournalAnnals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics
Volume59
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2007
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Change point models
  • GARCH models
  • Markov chain Monte Carlo
  • Particle filter
  • Sequential Monte Carlo
  • State state models

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