Emergent constraint on crop yield response to warmer temperature from field experiments

Responses of global crop yields to warmer temperatures are fundamental to sustainable development under climate change but remain uncertain. Here, we combined a global dataset of field warming experiments (48 sites) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean with gridded global crop models to produce field-data-constrained estimates on responses of crop yield to changes in temperature (S_T) with the emergent-constraint approach. Our constrained estimates show with >95% probability that warmer temperatures would reduce yields for maize (−7.1 ± 2.8% K⁻¹), rice (−5.6 ± 2.0% K⁻¹) and soybean (−10.6 ± 5.8% K⁻¹). For wheat, S_T was 89% likely to be negative (−2.9 ± 2.3% K⁻¹). Uncertainties associated with modelled S_T were reduced by 12–54% for the four crops but data constraints do not allow for further disentangling S_T of different crop types. A key implication for impact assessments after the Paris Agreement is that direct warming impacts alone will reduce major crop yields by 3–13% under 2 K global warming without considering CO₂ fertilization effects and adaptations. Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction. This yield loss could be partially offset by projected benefits from elevated CO₂, whose magnitude remains uncertain, and highlights the challenge to compensate it by autonomous adaptation.