Estimated reproduction ratios in the SIR model

Sean Elliott; Christian Gouriéroux

doi:10.1002/cjs.11663

Estimated reproduction ratios in the SIR model

Sean Elliott, Christian Gouriéroux

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

The aim of this article is to understand the extreme variability in estimates of the reproduction ratio R₀ observed in practice. For expository purposes, we consider a discrete-time, stochastic version of the susceptible-infected-recovered model and introduce different approximate maximum likelihood estimators of R₀. We carefully discuss the properties of these estimators and illustrate, by a Monte Carlo study, the widths of confidence intervals for R₀.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	992-1017
Number of pages	26
Journal	Canadian Journal of Statistics
Volume	49
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/cjs.11663
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2021
Externally published	Yes

Keywords

Approximate maximum likelihood
COVID-19
EpiEstim
SIR model
final size
reproduction ratio

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10.1002/cjs.11663

Cite this

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title = "Estimated reproduction ratios in the SIR model",

abstract = "The aim of this article is to understand the extreme variability in estimates of the reproduction ratio R0 observed in practice. For expository purposes, we consider a discrete-time, stochastic version of the susceptible-infected-recovered model and introduce different approximate maximum likelihood estimators of R0. We carefully discuss the properties of these estimators and illustrate, by a Monte Carlo study, the widths of confidence intervals for R0.",

keywords = "Approximate maximum likelihood, COVID-19, EpiEstim, SIR model, final size, reproduction ratio",

author = "Sean Elliott and Christian Gouri{\'e}roux",

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KW - Approximate maximum likelihood

KW - COVID-19

KW - EpiEstim

KW - SIR model

KW - final size

KW - reproduction ratio

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M3 - Article

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Estimated reproduction ratios in the SIR model

Abstract

Keywords

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