Influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on the Tropical Climate Response to CO₂ Forcing

The increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases is expected to affect the hydrological cycle and large-scale precipitation patterns. In parallel, unforced natural variability on decadal-to-multidecadal timescales can also modulate forced changes at the regional scales. Based on multimember ensembles from a coupled General Circulation Model, we investigate the sensitivity of CO₂-forced changes in tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation to fluctuations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We show that contrasted AMOC states yield considerable differences in equatorial Pacific precipitation forced changes, by impacting the direct (within a year) CO₂-induced weakening of the Walker circulation. We use global atmospheric energetics, as a theoretical backdrop, to explain the relationship between the tropical atmospheric circulation and the AMOC state. A physical mechanism is then proposed, relating the direct CO₂-forced weakening of the atmospheric tropical circulation to its climatological strength in unperturbed climate and indirectly to the AMOC state.