Modelling and estimating the reliability of stochastic dynamical systems with Markovian switching

Julien Chiquet, Mohamed Eid, Nikolaos Limnios

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

In this paper, a general framework for the modelling of physical phenomena with stochastic dynamical systems switched by jump Markov processes is given. A methodology of the associated estimation procedures is provided. A particular attention is paid to the estimation of the underlying jump process, which is not observable. As an application, a stochastic model is proposed for the fatigue crack growth problem. The estimation of the model parameters is made on a real crack growth data set. We are thus able to simulate some crack growth paths which are used for reliability analysis through Monte Carlo techniques.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1801-1808
Number of pages8
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume93
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2008
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Estimation of processes
  • Fatigue crack growth
  • Jump Markov process
  • Stochastic dynamical system

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