PROXIMAL-LANGEVIN SAMPLERS FOR NONSMOOTH COMPOSITE POSTERIORS: APPLICATION TO THE ESTIMATION OF COVID19 REPRODUCTION NUMBER

Patrice Abry, Gersende Fort, Barbara Pascal, Nelly Pustelnik

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Providing a level of confidence in the estimation of epidemiological indicators during pandemics is essential to inform decision makers. Monitoring the time evolution of the epidemic intensity despite the limited quality of the data is both crucial and challenging. For the estimation of the Covid-19 reproduction number through credibility intervals, a Bayesian model robust to errors in reported counts were proposed, yielding a non differentiable composite a posteriori log-density which required the design of advanced Proximal Langevin schemes. The first goal of this paper is to customize and compare on a pedagogically designed toy example, four different Hastings-Metropolis algorithms combining Langevin approaches and proximal operators. Then, the most efficient one is plugged into a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm performing a credibility intervals-based estimation of Covid-19 pandemic indicators, exemplified for several countries worldwide.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication31st European Signal Processing Conference, EUSIPCO 2023 - Proceedings
PublisherEuropean Signal Processing Conference, EUSIPCO
Pages1813-1817
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9789464593600
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2023
Externally publishedYes
Event31st European Signal Processing Conference, EUSIPCO 2023 - Helsinki, Finland
Duration: 4 Sept 20238 Sept 2023

Publication series

NameEuropean Signal Processing Conference
ISSN (Print)2219-5491

Conference

Conference31st European Signal Processing Conference, EUSIPCO 2023
Country/TerritoryFinland
CityHelsinki
Period4/09/238/09/23

Keywords

  • Bayesian credibility intervals
  • Covid-19
  • Langevin Monte Carlo
  • Markov chain Monte Carlo
  • Proximal operators
  • Reproduction number
  • log-concave composite density

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