Ralentissement démographique et chômage: Quels enseignements des modèles macroéconomiques?

The declines in fertility and mortality rates lead to important changes in demographic structures among all industrialized countries, including France. After several decades of sustained growth, the population in working ages will slowdown or even start declining. This movement is accompanied by an acceleration for the population in retirement ages. This study explores the impact of this double movement for labour market equilibrium. It first develops two stylized models describing potential impacts for the short run and the long run. It then uses the Mésange macroeconometric model for a more complete simulation. These different approaches suggest that favourable effects of the demographic slowdown are either small or temporary. In the long run, negative effects can result from the increasing pressure of age-related social expenditures, but only under the assumption that workers negotiate on net wages rather than on total labour costs.