Rising power system strains despite decreasing heating demand in a warming climate

Electrifying systems like heating is essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. France provides a compelling case study due to the high share of electricity used in its buildings sector. Using a heating degree-days methodology alongside a power demand model applied to ten climate model simulations, we examine four emission scenarios, assuming the actual electricity mix and use. Our results indicate a significant decrease in average power demand, with a slight reduction in peak demand during cold waves, driven by rising winter temperatures. This trend may give the misleading perception of a reduction in grid constraints. However, counterintuitively, the demand surge during cold waves—relative to normal conditions—is projected to increase with climate change, which could heighten the pressure on the power system. With the probability of such events decreasing, and heating needs becoming more fragmented, adaptation will be crucial for power system preparedness.