Science Beyond Quantification? Integrating Objective and Subjective Views in Unpredictable Worlds

This short paper stresses the importance of extending model-driven research practices to deal more comprehensively with unpredictability in hyper-complex systems (e.g., large socio-cyber-physical systems and planetary eco-systems). This point becomes particularly critical when scientific results inform governance decisions with dire consequences for various stakeholders (e.g. managing pandemics, economic crisis or climate disturbance). Research areas more acquainted with hyper-complexity (e.g. psycho-sociology, biology, business, defence) have proposed specific methods to deal with system unpredictability and management subjectivity. These include strategic prospective, dependability by design, action-research and post-normal science. Research areas more accustomed to stability and objectivity (e.g. natural sciences and engineering) seem to resist such extensions and struggle with the consequences when operating in unstable, multi-faceted contexts. They may issue unreliable predictions and ill preparedness due to over-reliance on models that are unfit, obsolete or one-sided. We emphasise the importance of adopting more suitable methods for studying, describing and managing hyper-complex systems facing unpredictability and subjectivity; and to highlight how integration science (SISSY) may contribute.