Stochastic mesoscale characterization of ablative materials for atmospheric entry

This study addresses the estimation of material properties at a mesoscopic level using the PuMA software from an uncertainty quantification perspective. Stochastic simulation with PuMA is primarily related to the random distribution of fibers, which is an intrinsic source of uncertainty. Additionally, the selection of certain physical parameters, such as the fiber's thermal conductivity, introduces further uncertainties. The first contribution of this study is to propose a low-cost surrogate-based methodology with an unequal allocation scheme, applied for the first time to the stochastic mesoscale characterization of ablative materials. The second contribution is a study on uncertainty propagation and sensitivity analysis of material properties, providing a systematic assessment of the choice of voxel resolution for both the fibers and the domain. Specifically, the convergence of quantities of interest can be monitored, thus identifying the minimal reference elementary volume.