Target oriented scenario analysis of PM_2.5 health impacts and costs: A case study in South-East Europe

The present study introduces a methodology to estimate emission levels, assess the costs of mitigation measures, and evaluate the corresponding health benefits that would result from achieving a mortality reduction target (ZP), with a specific application to a case study in South-East Europe. To that end, scenarios based on modelling of energy and climate specific for the region (MIX and BASELINE) were tested and complemented with additional reduction scenarios to achieve the desired mortality reduction level. The benefits due to abated mortality were estimated according to the value of statistical life (VSL) and the value of lost years (VOLY) approaches with the FASST model. With the aim of finding the most efficient emission reduction strategy to achieve the ZP target, the costs of measures were analysed considering end-of-pipe measures and emission sector detail with the SHERPA cost calculation algorithm. The new scenario ARS2 developed in the present study provides an efficient strategy to reach a target comparable to the one of the EU Zero Pollution Action Plan in each of the Western Balkans’ economies. The total benefit/cost ratio in ARS2 ranges between six and nine while the marginal ratio compared to the base case is between four and five. The most efficient measures in ARS2 are the reduction of SO₂ and NO_x emissions in power generation and industry, NO_x in road transport, primary PM_2.5 in domestic combustion and NH₃ in agriculture. The analysis shows the importance of transboundary pollution and, consequently, the need to account for emissions in neighbouring countries.