The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Chris D. Jones; Jonathan E. Hickman; Steven T. Rumbold; Jeremy Walton; Robin D. Lamboll; Ragnhild B. Skeie; Stephanie Fiedler; Piers M. Forster; Joeri Rogelj; Manabu Abe; Michael Botzet; Katherine Calvin; Christophe Cassou; Jason N.S. Cole; Paolo Davini; Makoto Deushi; Martin Dix; John C. Fyfe; Nathan P. Gillett; Tatiana Ilyina; Michio Kawamiya; Maxwell Kelley; Slava Kharin; Tsuyoshi Koshiro; Hongmei Li; Chloe Mackallah; Wolfgang A. Müller; Pierre Nabat; Twan van Noije; Paul Nolan; Rumi Ohgaito; Dirk Olivié; Naga Oshima; Jose Parodi; Thomas J. Reerink; Lili Ren; Anastasia Romanou; Roland Séférian; Yongming Tang; Claudia Timmreck; Jerry Tjiputra; Etienne Tourigny; Kostas Tsigaridis; Hailong Wang; Mingxuan Wu; Klaus Wyser; Shuting Yang; Yang Yang; Tilo Ziehn

doi:10.1029/2020GL091883

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Chris D. Jones
, Jonathan E. Hickman
, Steven T. Rumbold
, Jeremy Walton
, Robin D. Lamboll
, Ragnhild B. Skeie
, Stephanie Fiedler
, Piers M. Forster
, Joeri Rogelj
, Manabu Abe
, Michael Botzet
, Katherine Calvin
, Christophe Cassou
, Jason N.S. Cole
, Paolo Davini
, Makoto Deushi
, Martin Dix
, John C. Fyfe
, Nathan P. Gillett
, Tatiana Ilyina

Michio Kawamiya, Maxwell Kelley, Slava Kharin, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Hongmei Li, Chloe Mackallah, Wolfgang A. Müller, Pierre Nabat, Twan van Noije, Paul Nolan, Rumi Ohgaito, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Jose Parodi, Thomas J. Reerink, Lili Ren, Anastasia Romanou, Roland Séférian, Yongming Tang, Claudia Timmreck, Jerry Tjiputra, Etienne Tourigny, Kostas Tsigaridis, Hailong Wang, Mingxuan Wu, Klaus Wyser, Shuting Yang, Yang Yang, Tilo Ziehn

Now at Met Office Hadley Centre
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
University of Reading
Imperial College London
Center for International Climate Research (CICERO)
Germany; University of Cologne
Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research
University of Leeds
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
JAMSTEC
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Université Paul Sabatier
Meteorological Research Branch
Ev-K2-CNR Committee
JMA Meteorological Research Institute
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
SciSpace LLC
Royal Netherlands Meteorological I.
Research and Applications Division
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET)
Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Earth Sciences
Center for Climate Systems Research
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
Now at Danish Meteorological Institute

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO₂, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

Original language	English
Article number	e2020GL091883
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	48
Issue number	8
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091883
Publication status	Published - 28 Apr 2021
Externally published	Yes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

CMIP6
COVID-19 emissions reductions
CovidMIP
aerosol optical depth
climate perturbation
earth system model

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10.1029/2020GL091883

Cite this

Jones, C. D., Hickman, J. E., Rumbold, S. T., Walton, J., Lamboll, R. D., Skeie, R. B., Fiedler, S., Forster, P. M., Rogelj, J., Abe, M., Botzet, M., Calvin, K., Cassou, C., Cole, J. N. S., Davini, P., Deushi, M., Dix, M., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P., ... Ziehn, T. (2021). The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(8), Article e2020GL091883. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091883

@article{55d0a5a0a6ce492b96003612be417433,

title = "The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP",

abstract = "Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.",

keywords = "CMIP6, COVID-19 emissions reductions, CovidMIP, aerosol optical depth, climate perturbation, earth system model",

author = "Jones, \{Chris D.\} and Hickman, \{Jonathan E.\} and Rumbold, \{Steven T.\} and Jeremy Walton and Lamboll, \{Robin D.\} and Skeie, \{Ragnhild B.\} and Stephanie Fiedler and Forster, \{Piers M.\} and Joeri Rogelj and Manabu Abe and Michael Botzet and Katherine Calvin and Christophe Cassou and Cole, \{Jason N.S.\} and Paolo Davini and Makoto Deushi and Martin Dix and Fyfe, \{John C.\} and Gillett, \{Nathan P.\} and Tatiana Ilyina and Michio Kawamiya and Maxwell Kelley and Slava Kharin and Tsuyoshi Koshiro and Hongmei Li and Chloe Mackallah and M{\"u}ller, \{Wolfgang A.\} and Pierre Nabat and \{van Noije\}, Twan and Paul Nolan and Rumi Ohgaito and Dirk Olivi{\'e} and Naga Oshima and Jose Parodi and Reerink, \{Thomas J.\} and Lili Ren and Anastasia Romanou and Roland S{\'e}f{\'e}rian and Yongming Tang and Claudia Timmreck and Jerry Tjiputra and Etienne Tourigny and Kostas Tsigaridis and Hailong Wang and Mingxuan Wu and Klaus Wyser and Shuting Yang and Yang Yang and Tilo Ziehn",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. Crown Copyright. {\textcopyright} 2021. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.",

year = "2021",

month = apr,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1029/2020GL091883",

language = "English",

volume = "48",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

number = "8",

}

Jones, CD, Hickman, JE, Rumbold, ST, Walton, J, Lamboll, RD, Skeie, RB, Fiedler, S, Forster, PM, Rogelj, J, Abe, M, Botzet, M, Calvin, K, Cassou, C, Cole, JNS, Davini, P, Deushi, M, Dix, M, Fyfe, JC, Gillett, NP, Ilyina, T, Kawamiya, M, Kelley, M, Kharin, S, Koshiro, T, Li, H, Mackallah, C, Müller, WA, Nabat, P, van Noije, T, Nolan, P, Ohgaito, R, Olivié, D, Oshima, N, Parodi, J, Reerink, TJ, Ren, L, Romanou, A, Séférian, R, Tang, Y, Timmreck, C, Tjiputra, J, Tourigny, E, Tsigaridis, K, Wang, H, Wu, M, Wyser, K, Yang, S, Yang, Y & Ziehn, T 2021, 'The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 48, no. 8, e2020GL091883. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091883

TY - JOUR

T1 - The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19

T2 - Initial Results From CovidMIP

AU - Jones, Chris D.

AU - Hickman, Jonathan E.

AU - Rumbold, Steven T.

AU - Walton, Jeremy

AU - Lamboll, Robin D.

AU - Skeie, Ragnhild B.

AU - Fiedler, Stephanie

AU - Forster, Piers M.

AU - Rogelj, Joeri

AU - Abe, Manabu

AU - Botzet, Michael

AU - Calvin, Katherine

AU - Cassou, Christophe

AU - Cole, Jason N.S.

AU - Davini, Paolo

AU - Deushi, Makoto

AU - Dix, Martin

AU - Fyfe, John C.

AU - Gillett, Nathan P.

AU - Ilyina, Tatiana

AU - Kawamiya, Michio

AU - Kelley, Maxwell

AU - Kharin, Slava

AU - Koshiro, Tsuyoshi

AU - Li, Hongmei

AU - Mackallah, Chloe

AU - Müller, Wolfgang A.

AU - Nabat, Pierre

AU - van Noije, Twan

AU - Nolan, Paul

AU - Ohgaito, Rumi

AU - Olivié, Dirk

AU - Oshima, Naga

AU - Parodi, Jose

AU - Reerink, Thomas J.

AU - Ren, Lili

AU - Romanou, Anastasia

AU - Séférian, Roland

AU - Tang, Yongming

AU - Timmreck, Claudia

AU - Tjiputra, Jerry

AU - Tourigny, Etienne

AU - Tsigaridis, Kostas

AU - Wang, Hailong

AU - Wu, Mingxuan

AU - Wyser, Klaus

AU - Yang, Shuting

AU - Yang, Yang

AU - Ziehn, Tilo

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021. Crown Copyright. © 2021. Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. Reproduced with the permission of the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

PY - 2021/4/28

Y1 - 2021/4/28

N2 - Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

AB - Many nations responded to the corona virus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO2, other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial-condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near-surface temperature or rainfall during 2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID-19-related emission reductions on near-term climate.

KW - CMIP6

KW - COVID-19 emissions reductions

KW - CovidMIP

KW - aerosol optical depth

KW - climate perturbation

KW - earth system model

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85105045773

U2 - 10.1029/2020GL091883

DO - 10.1029/2020GL091883

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85105045773

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 48

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 8

M1 - e2020GL091883

ER -

The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID-19: Initial Results From CovidMIP

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

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