A stochastic conflict detection method integrating planned heading and velocity changes

This paper addresses the issue of conflict detection in the domain of air traffic control. In a previous study investigating the position error in conflict estimation, a comprehensive model has been proposed and tuned with real data. Further steps are proposed in this paper consisting firstly of investigating wind effects on aircraft trajectory predictions; secondly by providing a conflict estimation approach that could be applied to aircraft trajectories with heading and velocity changes. Finally, a time-based probabilistic approach instead of position-based is proposed for predicting flight paths to be navigated by existing Flight Management Systems (FMSs).