Computation of tail probabilities for non-classical gasdynamic phenomena

This paper presents a novel method for computing the tail probability of a given quantity of interest by using only a low number of evaluations of the computer model, representing the problem of interest under uncertainties. This method is then applied to the study of rarefaction shock waves (RSW) in a dense-gas shock tube. It is well-known in literature that the prediction of a RSW is highly sensitive to uncertainties on the initial flow conditions. The objective of this work is to compute a very accurate estimation of the RSW probability of occurrence in a shock tube configuration.