Insertion des jeunes sur le Marché du travail, diplôme et quartier d'origine: Une modélisation dynamique

We study the impact of the initial localization at the end of studies on the transitions between the states of the labor market. We consider a sufficiently long period to account for the insertion process of young people into working life. The trajectories of youth who all left school in 1998 go through five states of the labour market: permanent employment contracts, temporary employment contracts, subsidized employments, unemployment, non-participation. The model we use allows to disentangle true from spurious state dependence. This allows to compare the insertion of young people with different observed or unobserved characteristics. Our main results show that the subsidized jobs do not significantly improve the insertion into stable employment. The original neighborhood of these young people has a significant negative impact on their insertion on the labor market. More specifically, the original neighborhood has a negative impact on access to unstable jobs.