On the Emergence of Anthropogenic Signal in Extreme Precipitation Change Over China

The detection of anthropogenic influences on climate extremes at regional scale is important for the development of national climate change policy. Global climate simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario are used to examine the time at which an anthropogenic influence becomes detectable in extreme precipitation over China and the change in probability of extreme precipitation with certain magnitudes when the changes are detectable. Anthropogenic influence is not significantly detected over China in the observational record or simulations from 1961 to 2012 based on the test of field significance. Simulations indicate that such change would become detectable in the future by around 2035. Large changes would already manifest by the time of signal detection; for example, extreme precipitation events that occur on average once every 20, 50, and 100 years in current (1986–2005) climate would reduce to about 15, 34, and 63 years on average by the time of detection around 2035.